Divergent Thinking on Resource Consumption (SL IB Geography)

• There are different views regarding resource consumption and population growth
• These views are:
  • Pessimistic: population growth will occur faster than the resources available
  • Optimistic: resources will expand to meet the demand due to technology and invention
  • Balanced: conservation and good governance will ensure resources can meet the increasing demand

Pessimistic views on population growth

Malthus

• Thomas Malthus proposed his theory in 1798
• At this time, agricultural production was restricted as new developments in agriculture were limited
• A pessimistic view of the relationship between population and resources (specifically food) states:
  • Population growth is increasing at a faster rate than food supply
    • Population grows at a geometric rate (2,4,6,8,...)
    • Food production grows at an arithmetic rate (1, 2, 3, 4, etc.)

Graph to illustrate Malthus' theory 

• This means that there will be times when there is not enough food to sustain the population
• As a result, there will be a Malthusian catastrophe—famine, disease or war
  • These are known as positive checks as they increase the death rate
  • When people do not have sufficient food, they are more likely to become ill or contract diseases and fertility rates will fall. It will also increase the risk of war and conflict
• Alternatively, negative (preventative) checks can be implemented, as recommended by Malthus
  • These aim to decrease the birth rate before the crisis point is reached
• These limiting factors maintain the balance between population and resources
• Malthus's predictions were incorrect as they came before much of the technological developments which have enabled food supply to increase

Neo-Malthusians

• Neo-Malthusians today base their views on Malthus' theory. They argue that:
  • Humans have now used most of the available agricultural land 
  • The amount of fertile land is declining
  • Food prices are increasing
  • The population continues to increase
• They suggest that famines are one example of how Malthusian theory has proven to be correct
• Neo-Malthusians argue that population control is essential in avoiding a Malthusian catastrophe

The Club of Rome

• One group of academics, the 'Club of Rome', published 'Limits to Growth' in 1972. The report suggested
  
  • With the rate of population growth, positive checks on population would occur in the near future
  • That humans would soon exceed the carrying capacity of the Earth

Club of Rome Limits to Growth model

• The Club of Rome suggested that:
  • Population checks should be introduced to reduce the birth rate and conserve resources
  • Food supplies would decrease from 2000 
  • Rapid resource depletion would occur from 2000

Ester Boserup

• A Danish economist, Ester Boserup, put forward her theory regarding population growth in 1965 
• In her optimistic view of the relationship between population and resources (specifically food), she stated that:
  • Population growth will stimulate developments in technology to increase food production
  • More efficient resources will be discovered/used
  • Renewable resources will replace non-renewable

Graph to illustrate Boserup's theory on population and resources

Julian Simon

• In the 1980s, Simon's theory argued that the human mind will always solve the problem of scarce resources
• Resources will never run out because:
  • Technological innovation will reduce the scarcity of raw materials and decrease their cost
  • Food and water quality will improve

Were pessimists or optimists right?

• During the 1800s and 1900s, food production increased faster than population growth
• This increase in food production was the result of:
  • More intensive farming - yields increased due to irrigation, crop rotation, fertilisers and selective breeding
  • Increasing areas of land were cultivated
  • Technological improvements - greater use of machines means areas can be cultivated and harvested more efficiently, development of high yield varieties, mechanised milking increases milk yields
• For developed countries, an increase in imported foods also ensured that food supplies were greater than population growth

• The future challenges relating to resource consumption include
  • Climate change
  • Water, energy and food nexus
  • Continued population increase 
  • Changing population structure
  • Increasing development
  • Technological developments
• All of these will affect whether there will be sufficient food for the population

A balanced approach

• This approach aims to:
  • Conserve resources to ensure less reliance on technological innovations to provide sufficient food
  • Examine ways to address the inequality of food consumption so that food resources are shared more equally around the world
  • Encourage governments and organisations to adopt a stewardship approach to reducing waste and inefficient use of resources

What is stewardship?

• Stewardship combines conservation and preservation
• Conservation is the efficient use of resources with minimum waste
  • It recognises that the use of resources should ensure that future generations can meet their needs
• Preservation focuses on setting aside areas to reduce or completely ban the commercial use of land and exploitation of resources

Optimum population

• Careful management of population and resources is needed to ensure a balance
• Countries aim to achieve a perfect balance between population and resources, known as optimum population 
• An imbalance between population and resources leads to overpopulation or underpopulation

Optimum population and resources

Carrying capacity

• The maximum stable population size that an environment can support is known as the carrying capacity
• The size of the Earth’s carrying capacity is determined by:
  • Size of the population
  • Level of resource consumption
  • Technological innovation
  • Level of wealth

• If resources are consumed at sustainable rates, a larger population may be supported
• Countries going through industrialisation tend to consume and waste resources at unsustainable levels, which leads to a lower carrying capacity
• Technological innovation can either lead to:
  • Increases in the supply of resources such as energy and minerals, lowering carrying capacity

OR

• • Improved resource use efficiency and a higher carrying capacity
• Wealthier countries usually have a larger carrying capacity than poorer countries because:
  • They export waste to poorer countries
  • They import products from poorer countries
  • This means that although poorer countries use fewer resources, they are supporting the resource use of richer countries

Two different scenarios showing population response to carrying capacity